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Chicago can catch up with falling crime rates nationwide if it takes action
Chicago has seen a notable reduction in crime following the COVID-19 pandemic. A trend that coincides with the removal of pandemic-era restrictions and a renewed focus on high-crime neighborhoods, the focus included not just expanded social services and violence interrupters, but also an increased police presence. The surge in police is an inconvenient truth ignored by critics so if there is a constant, it’s that Chicago’s violent crime surge was greater than the national average and the decline Chicago is experiencing is more modest than across the nation.
Chicago still remains the crime capital of the United States, leading all U.S. cities in both murders and mass shootings year after year, including 2025. In 2024, if Chicago was a state, it would have ranked second only to California in mass shootings. Chicago has also consistently led the nation in the number of school-age youth (17 and younger) murdered and in violent crime committed by that same age group. Domestic violence and hate crimes have also significantly increased.
Even these alarming statistics understate the full scope of crime in the city. According to Superintendent of Police Larry Snelling, Chicago’s police department is currently 2,000 officers short of full strength. As a result, there are police cars available to respond to only about 50 percent of high-priority 911 calls when they come in — up from just 19 percent in 2019, the last time CPD was fully staffed. With fewer officers available, many crimes simply go unreported.
Despite the impact of Violence Interrupters, one truth remains: Crime surged during COVID lockdowns when citizens were isolated. The decline in crime since has largely followed the reopening of schools, workplaces, and social spaces. Of all these contributing factors, the reopening of school campuses has had the most substantial impact. The spike in violent crime during the pandemic was primarily driven by crimes committed against — and by — school-age youth.
Chicago Public Schools remained fully closed for 78 consecutive weeks, long after most other major districts had resumed partial or full in-person instruction. One of two primary reasons Chicago became an outlier was the sharp decline in police staffing, with the department losing more than 1,700 officers. This led to a significant drop in both the number and percentage of arrests for violent crime. The state’s embrace of pre-trial release policies further aggravated the situation.
Studies from researchers with the Council on Criminal Justice show that most violent crime rates have returned to pre-pandemic levels nationally, with the early pandemic crime surge now largely reversed. While city leaders tout a decline in murders over the past two years, Chicago still ranked third from the bottom among major cities with populations over 250,000 last year. This year, the decline in city murders mirrors a 23 percent decline nationwide.
There’s no denying that violence intervention programs have had some success in specific neighborhoods, but those same neighborhoods have also seen a surge in police presence. Whenever violence flares in any part of the city, police are quickly redeployed there. The data is clear: In Chicago, no factor is more strongly correlated with reductions in violent crime than increases in police presence and proactive policing.
The connection between police staffing and murder rates is irrefutable. In 1992 — Chicago’s second most violent year on record — the city had fewer than 12,000 officers and suffered 940 murders, or 33.1 per 100,000 residents. As the Chicago Police Department (CPD) grew its ranks to a high of 13,500 officers, murders dropped nearly every year, hitting a modern low of 411 in 2014 — or 15.2 per 100,000 residents. During Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s tenure, this pattern repeated itself.
With murder rates at a modern day low, Emanuel attempted to balance the budget by leaving police vacancies unfilled, eventually eliminating 2,200 police officer positions. The result was predictable: Murders surged to 784 by 2016 — 28 per 100,000 residents. Later, Emanuel reversed course, refilled positions, and restored police staffing to nearly 13,500. By 2019, Lori Lightfoot first year in office, murders had fallen to 506, or 18.6 per 100,000 residents.
The violent crime surge that followed during the pandemic was exacerbated by a reduction in police officer strength by over 1,700. Unfortunately, there was little savings as Chicago can only reduce officer headcount so far before the rise in overtime costs offsets any fiscal benefit. Last year, the city spent over $250 million on police overtime — two and a half times the $100 million spent in 2019, when CPD was fully staffed. This extra $150 million could have funded over 1,000 additional officers.
What must be done to permanently reduce violent crime?
1.) Restore police strength and replace CTA private security with 400 more CPD officers. Note, Mayor Brandon Johnson has almost as many officers assigned to his security detail as are currently assigned to the Chicago Transit Authority. This will ensure beat integrity, timely 911 responses, and visible police presence in parks, CTA stations, and on trains.
2.) Reform pre-trial and sentencing policies. Violent and habitual offenders must be kept off the streets. Bail should be revoked for those who pose a threat, and mandatory sentences should be imposed for attacks or threats against witnesses, victims, or police officers.
3.) Permanently fund violence intervention programs. Though Mayor Johnson has readily dispensed that job training, drug rehabilitation programs, mental health care, and transitional housing — are readily available, the mayor's words are hollow. It is important to note that Johnson has reopened only three of the 12 mental health centers closed under former Mayor Emanuel.
4.) Involve schools in crime prevention. School campuses should stay open into the evenings, Saturdays and through the summer, offering activities and safe havens. Schools, in partnership with city agencies, nonprofits, and the private sector, should also offer year-round paid work-study programs as an alternative to irrelevant non-essential electives.
5.) Identity and inventory of existing alternative education, occupational training and apprenticeship programs and support organizations willing to accept individuals who are referred by the courts as an alternative to incarceration as well as those previously incarcerated. Little attention has been given to education and occupational training program for those incarcerated or in reentry.
Chicago must lay the foundation for a more effective Diversion Program to offer education and occupational training alternatives to incarceration for those arrested for non-violent crimes and to provide for a comprehensive Re-entry Program for those previously incarcerated. Data from the Prison Policy Initiative shows that the unemployment rate for formerly incarcerated persons ages is a staggering 27.3 percent, nearly five times higher than that for the general U.S. population.
Approximately 97 percent of incarcerated individuals in the U.S. will eventually be released and return to their communities — either released on probation, parole, or unconditionally discharged. In Illinois, as of December 31, 2019, this means out of the state’s inmate population of 38,259, 36,346 will eventually be freed. The vast majority of those scheduled for release are Chicagoans who are likely to return to the city.
Although in a different setting, recall that in 2006, General David Petraeus, then the commander of the Multi-National Security Transition Command – Iraq, oversaw the creation of the Sons of Iraq, which eventually employed 100,000 young Sunni men 20 to 30 years old, some of whom had previously sworn loyalty to Saddam Hussein. Petraeus’ coalition of former Iraqi military personnel and Sunni leaders began cooperating with U.S. forces.
This cooperation, driven by Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s intimidation and violence against Sunnis, led to a dramatic decrease in insurgent activity and a substantial improvement in security in the volatile Al Anbar province. Part of what was referred to as the Great Awakening, the cooperation led to violence receding and a drop in American deaths in Iraq. It was the employing of young Iraqis more than the military surge that dramatically stabilized Iraq.
There are no financial obstacles to providing work study for high school students and education and occupational training alternatives to incarceration or a vehicle for earned early release. It simply requires the resetting of priorities, taking full advantage of existing programs and available resources and effective coordination and cooperation of government institutions. It also requires that we are reasonable and removing obstacles to economic reintegration for those who previously incarcerated.
There is a plethora of programs as well as community-based organizations that can more effectively serve this population with the proper coordination and access to a common data base. Additional funding can be secured through the Workforce Innovation Opportunity Act (WIOA), which offers occupational training grants for high school dropouts among other at-risk populations. The Federal Workforce Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC), is available to companies that hire them.
Changing the trajectory of many paths, rather than fueling the school-to-prison pipeline would ultimately create significant savings associated as the cost ratio between incarceration and education can range from 4:1 to 7:1, depending on the type and level of incarceration. Furthermore, the long-term savings in the form of reduced government dependency and the benefits to the community in terms of economic activity are substantial.
It is critical that the Chicago Police Department be sufficiently staffed and given the support needed to remove and keep violent and habitual criminals off the street and that there be the presence of violence interiors drawn from the community. However, there is no more important priority than addressing the educational and occupational training needs of not only school age youth but also individuals who enter the criminal justice system while removing obstacles to economic reintegration for those previously incarcerated.
