Progressive policies are swapping out middle- and upper-income families for the poor and illegal migrants, with disastrous consequences for the state's taxpayers and its economy
Whether by accident or by design, the “Great Displacement” is already underway. Illinois is experiencing a colossal demographic upheaval — losing affluent residents through outmigration while gaining relatively poorer ones through both interstate and international migration. This shift is largely the product of the state’s so‑called progressive policies. High taxes and fees remain the primary reason Illinoisans cite for leaving, followed closely by hopelessly failing schools, rising crime, limited economic opportunity, and expansive sanctuary measures that encourage low‑income in‑migration.
According to Wirepoints, Illinois continues to hemorrhage wealthy residents. Since 2000, the state has lost roughly 1.6 million people — third most in the nation, behind only California and New York. Chicago’s population, even with the recent influx of migrants, is now at its lowest level in nearly a century. Almost every county in Illinois has experienced a decline in population. Even more troubling, Illinois isn’t merely losing residents — it’s losing income.
The IRS reports that in 2022 alone, 87,311 residents left Illinois, taking with them $9.9 billion in adjusted gross income. The real damage runs deeper: The outflow disproportionately includes residents in their prime earning and spending years. This brain and income drain erodes the tax base, shrinking critical property, sales, and consumption tax revenues that support state and local budgets.
A detailed Wirepoints analysis of IRS migration data for 2022 shows Illinois was the nation’s second‑biggest loser of households aged 26-35 earning more than $200,000. Unsurprisingly, zero-income-tax states such as Florida and Texas were the leading destinations for these upwardly mobile millennials. Illinois has been bleeding this cohort for more than a decade, but the acceleration is alarming.
Wirepoints also found that in 2022, the average adjusted gross income for these departing young households was $435,000. The exodus continues among those aged 35-45 with incomes over $200,000 — another key demographic of high earners. Illinois ranks 48th nationally for losses in this income bracket. More concerning, the average AGI among these leavers approaches $700,000.
Illinois and Chicago’s sanctuary policies, routinely framed in moral terms, now function as political instruments — devised to offset population declines and protect Democratic dominance in state and city government. Yet these policies fail to replace the lost income. A 2025 Pew Research Center report estimates Illinois hosts approximately 550,000 illegal migrants, sixth most in the nation — nearly half of whom reside in the Chicago metropolitan area.
The cost to this exodus is staggering. Thus far, Illinois taxpayers have subsidized migrant support programs to the tune of roughly $3 billion statewide, including as much as $600 million by the City of Chicago. According to Chalkbeat, the number of migrant children enrolled in Chicago Public Schools this year ranges from 8,900 to as many as 17,000, depending on classification. Wirepoints estimates the additional taxpayer cost for educating these students between $215 million and $410 million.
Whether through deliberate policy or chronic mismanagement, Illinois' leadership is steering the state toward a downward economic spiral. The wealth Illinois forfeits by driving out high‑income taxpayers while attracting lower‑income, publicly subsidized newcomers is enormous. IRS migration not only documents the net migration loss for Illinois but its SOI data shows that between out‑migrating and in‑migrating residents grew from $5,519 in 2010 to $37,922 in 2022 — during the height of the border crisis and the migrant influx.
Governor Pritzker’s highly publicized recent population “gains” are the result not of economic revival but of surging foreign migration. Prior to federal border policy loosening in 2021, Illinois averaged around 25,000 international immigrants annually; this figure soared to 113,000 by 2024. Blaming governors in Texas or Florida for sending migrants north ignores the reality that Illinois’ own sanctuary policies make it a magnet for illegal migration.
Despite this influx, Chicago’s overall population remains lower than it was 100 years ago. The data reveal a painful pattern of displacement — particularly among Black residents. The city has lost more than 250,000 Black residents since 2000, mostly middle‑income families. The adult Black population declined 14 percent, but the number of Black children plummeted by nearly 50 percent. Enrollment in Chicago Public Schools is now less than half of its 1999-2000 total.
Illinois' gerrymandered political system and billionaire governor prioritize government expansion over private‑sector vitality — fueling growth in bureaucracy with ever‑rising state and local taxes as Pritzker alone raised state taxes and fees 55 times taking in nearly $7 billion annually despite receiving over $13 billion in federal COVID funding.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports between 2019 and 2024 Illinois added 11,542 private public sector jobs while actually losing 1,942 private sector jobs. Public sector jobs now constitute 13.4 percent of Illinois’ work force. Wirepoints reports Illinois added only 15,500 net new jobs since January 2019 — the nation’s second worst performance, as Illinois COVID policies made for a much slower recovery. By contrast, Florida and Texas added 1.1 million and 1.5 million jobs, respectively.
Meanwhile, in Chicago, Mayor Brandon Johnson continues his “tax the rich” crusade, insisting higher rates on employers will correct all the city's ills. Johnson’s proposed levies — the employee head tax and cloud tax increase — bear no relation to a business’s ability to pay and will further drive out investment. Chicago already has the highest combined commercial property and sales taxes in the nation. It’s also worthwhile to note that Chicago's cloud tax, which effectively taxes technology use, is already highest in the nation.
Ironically, while Illinois ranks first nationwide in combined state and local taxes, fines, and fees, it ranks last in economic equity (ahead of only Washington, D.C.) and 40th in racial equality in education. So much for the promised inclusive, progressive vision. In practice, it has produced only higher taxes, substantial long-term debt, persistent deficits, weak growth, limited school choice, and crime. Chicago is literally trading Black residents for illegal migrants.
Illinois’ sanctuary status now ensures that dwindling resources must be spread across an expanding dependent population. The state’s Democratic leadership remains obsessed with defying federal immigration enforcement and engaging in partisan theatrics, while the actual issues driving residents out — crime, failing schools, and unsustainable taxes — go unaddressed.
The Great Displacement is not a temporary trend. It is a verdict on leadership. Unless Illinois’ policymakers abandon strategies that protect their political power at the expense of the state’s economic survival, this once‑great state will continue its managed descent into decline.
