A verdict has been rendered: Studies show a police presence is a deterrent to crime
In the City of Chicago, good news regarding the capabilities, performance, or achievements of the Chicago Police Department (CPD) does not sell well. A city in which lawmakers and media are in thrall to the mercurial passions of progressive activists, CPD’s accomplishments are routinely ignored, dismissed as negligible, or otherwise undervalued to encourage the acceptance of alternatives to policing.
On Sunday, March 9, as hundreds of teenagers gathered in Streeterville, an argument near the AMC River East movie theater resulted in gunfire and a tourist shot. Weeks later, on March 28, Streeterville residents were again forced to endure another chaotic weekend of teens creating a commotion. On the Saturday evening, as teens again ran amok through the neighborhood, gunfire was heard near 400 North Cityfront Plaza Drive. When Chicago Police arrived, they discovered a 15-year-old with a graze wound to his leg.
With Streeterville propelled into successive maelstroms of teen takeovers in which two were injured by gunfire, City Council members summoned up the need to lower a city curfew in the area from 10 p.m. to 8 p.m. As lawmakers debated the value of altering the curfew, Streeterville residents braced for yet another weekend of unruly teens turning their neighborhood into an outdoor insane asylum.
Streeterville residents, however, did not have to wait too long to hear of the next foreseeable takeover. During the week of April 18, officers serving with the Intelligence Section of CPD’s Bureau of Counterterrorism learned of another planned teen takeover in the neighborhood expected on Friday, April 18. Once informed of the designed takeover, the Streeterville Organization of Active Residents (SOAR) delivered an e-mail blast to members, informing residents of measures taken by CPD to thwart potential trouble and urging them to plan around any likely disorder.
Yet by the end of the evening of April 18, Chicago Police reported few arrests — for curfew violations — and a calm atmosphere had prevailed in Streeterville.
The fact Streeterville remained peaceful on April 18th when two weekends in the six-week period prior had left the neighborhood recuperating from several shootings, a stabbing, and teens rampaging through the area inspires an intriguing question: How did sanity win out?
The answer is found in a heightened CPD presence in the neighborhood on the 18th.
According to CPD, an additional 200 officers were assigned to Streeterville to meet any unrest. Included in the increase to officers were Tactical Teams from several Police Districts and Priority Response Teams from around the city.
Though Mayor Brandon Johnson has placed blind faith in the efficacy of peacekeepers and social spending to cure crime, empirical evidence gathered in several recent studies all demonstrate an increase in officers result in reductions to violent crime.
According to a 2017 study completed by Dartmouth College’s Steven Mello, research showed an increase in police strength led to a decline in the crime rate. Among Mello’s conclusions: An increase to the number of officers contributed to a decline in one murder for every 11 officers. While Mello’s research concentrated in part on the impact of an Obama-era grant through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, he determined an additional officer is related to “1.39 fewer robberies, 9.6 fewer larcenies, and 3.5 fewer auto thefts.” Chief among Mello’s deductions is an increased police presence deterred crime and led to fewer arrests.
In a second study conducted by the Rand Corporation and two academics with the University of Pennsylvania, John MacDonald and Paul Heaton, research found crime dropped appreciably in the long term in areas in which a law-enforcement presence existed. Though the Rand study examined the impact on crime in areas under the jurisdiction of a private police force — the University of Chicago Police Department (UCPD) — Chicago Police were able to reduce its presence in areas newly patrolled by UCPD. Moreover, the results of the study concluded in the long-term, additional policing reduced violent crime by over 50 percent in areas included in the study.
A third study in 2018 carried out by economists Cheng Cheng and Wei Long found nearly identical results. A study examining the French Quarter Task Force (FQTF) concluded in 2018, Cheng and Wei discovered a program introduced in New Orleans designed to increase police visibility was successful in reducing crime. A program which was the culmination of residents’ desire to thwart the rise of violent crime in the French Quarter, the initiative called for the creation of a special unit to patrol the neighborhood in vehicles and on-foot 24 hours a day.
A plan utilizing off-duty police, the FQTF recorded double-digit drops in crime, specifically in robbery, aggravated assault, and theft in a nine-month period. The study showed robberies alone plummeted 37.4 percent.
The Chicago Police Department is essential for maintaining public order and public safety. Although Chicago can weigh different policing strategies and the effectiveness of each new proposal can be rationally and dispassionately examined, there is no surrogate for officers on the street, in a beat car or assembled in specialized units.
When teens took over Streeterville on March 9 and March 28, two shootings and a stabbing took place, all of which was undeterred by the minimal police presence, bystanders, or security cameras. However, on April 18th, additional officers deterred instances of violent criminality.
While CPD still suffers from a serious shortage of personnel — the Department is down some 2,200 officers — if there is a lesson to be learned from April 18th in Streeterville, it is marshaling large formations of officers in areas in which disturbances are likely pay dividends.
Progressives have established a well-earned reputation for mechanically bleating Chicago is bedeviled by “overpolicing.” A falsehood, Chicago is, in fact, woefully under-policed and crime rates in the Windy City clearly demonstrate this. Though April 18th was not the subject of criminologists measuring the effect of policing strategies, the success of this single weekend in Streeterville validated the conclusions of several studies determined over months or years of exhaustive analysis: Where officers are present in sufficient numbers, crime is foiled, and when fewer police are visible, crime surges.
