The Republican Party must first learn how to survive
In the recent GOP gubernatorial primary Ted Dabrowski, a polished, free market, tough on crime conservative took a drubbing from his pedestrian opponent, Darren Bailey. Does the thought of Chicago and Illinois continuing to be permanently "blue" real estate give you the blues? I couldn’t help but be depressed after the results last St. Patrick’s Day. In a city that is crime ridden, fiscally under water and an educational wasteland, how can the voters keep rewarding the Democrats with resounding victories? Some of it is due to the unique nature of Chicago. Most of it, however, is part of a national trend over the past century.
In Philadelphia, between 1920-1952 Republicans rattled off victory after victory starting with J. Hampton Moore and ending with Bernard Samuel. Starting with Joseph S. Clark, the Democrats have held serve from 1952 to today’s administration of Cherelle Parker. There were many Democrats at different areas of the political spectrum from Frank Rizzo to Wilson Goode.
In Detroit in 1922, John W. Smith, a Republican, took office for two terms. Democrat Frank Murphy succeeded him for one term, to be succeeded by Frank Couzens in 1933. That set off a winning streak through the administration of Louis Miriani in 1962. Then a Democratic winning streak started with the administration of Jerome Cavanaugh up until today’s administration of Mike Duggan. Cavanaugh was looked at as possible Democratic national politician before a major race riot in 1967 derailed his ambitions.
In New York City, when the notorious playboy mayor, Jimmy Walker, was elected in 1926, through 1994, the Democrats had a stranglehold on Gracie Mansion with two notable exceptions. Those exceptions were the colorful Fiorella Laguardia from 1934 to 1945 and the telegenic John V. Lindsay from 1967 to 1975. Laguardia ran as a Republican/Fusion candidate and Lindsay won his first term as the GOP standard bearer and his second term as the Liberal Party candidate. In 1994, a genuine Republican, Rudolph Giuliani, was elected. At the time New York City was much like the Kurt Russell movie Escape From New York for the previous 20 years. Giuliani did a wonderful job of cleaning the city up in his two terms. His successor, Michael Bloomberg, followed the Giuliani playbook for the next three terms. Liberal Democrat Mayor Bill DeBlasio did a U-Turn with predictably disastrous results. Eric Adams made a little more sense before the borderline communist Mayor Zohran Mamdani took office this year.
In Cleveland, Republican John D. Marshall served as mayor between 1925 and 1933. Raymond T. Miller succeeded him and set off a Democratic winning streak until 1971 when Carl Stokes, the nation’s first black mayor of a major American city decided to retire. He was succeeded by Republican Ralph Perk. Democrat Dennis Kucinich, the Democratic boy mayor, served between Perk and Republican George Voinovich. In 1989, Democrat Michael was elected mayor. There hasn’t been a losing Democratic candidate since. Justin Bibb is the current officeholder.
Now we pivot to Chicago, where Republican William Hale Thompson served as mayor from 1915 until 1933, apart from Democrat William Dever’s sole term from 1923 to 1927. Since 1933 the Democrats have pitched a shutout (including 33 years of father and son Daley administrations) right up until Brandon Johnson today. That’s Johnson’s part time job. His full-time job is to do the bidding of The Chicago Teachers Union (CTU).
Percentage points
In 1983, Republican candidate Bernie Epton lost to Harold Washington by only 3.4 percentage points. Epton’s main campaign message was “Vote for Epton – before it’s too late”. Washington was black and Epton was white. That racist plea was the best that Chicago’s GOP could come up with to come close to winning an election. That certainly was not a long-term strategy in terms of future political success and a solid moral grounding.
What are the common denominators that keep urban areas blue? The biggest is Republican brand toxicity due to the Great Depression in the 1930’s. The major cause of the economic catastrophe was the overly restrictive monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board that was created in 1913 during the administration of Woodrow Wilson. Under the leadership of Benjamin Strong the Fed initially carried out their job as a banker to the banks. As an inherently political institution that was bound not to last. The blame for the genesis of the Great Depression was laid at the feet of the Republicans and their laissez faire economic policies. Capitalism was the bogeyman.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s presidency came to the “rescue” with a blizzard alphabet soup programs. The Public Works Administration (PWA), Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), National Youth Administration (NYA), and Works Progress Administration (WPA), among others. These programs were basically make-work programs. No doubt there were some dams and bridges built but also plenty of shovels digging out dirt and filling them back in. There was also the birth of the U.S. Housing Authority. That would come in handy for future Democratic urban campaigns. The biggest downside was not the lack of productivity with these jobs but the sense of dependency that they fostered.
In October of 1960, Jackie Robinson, who broke the color barrier in Major League Baseball in 1947 by playing for the Brooklyn Dodgers, played a role in that year's presidential election. Robinson was a rock-solid Republican out of New York. Martin Luther King had been arrested as a peaceful protestor and after his conviction was sent to a Georgia prison to endure hard labor. Robinson urged the Republican nominee, Richard Nixon, to visit King in prison. Nixon refused because he was afraid of losing Georgia’s electoral votes. In 1956, President Dwight D. Eisenhower won 40 percent of the black vote. Nixon's public blunder, in addition to the GOP’s 1964 standard bearer, Barry Goldwater’s opposition to the 1964 Civil Rights Act, kissed off the black vote. The percentage of the black vote for Democrats is now at least 90%.
Lyndon Johnson won the 1964 presidential election, and in 1965, with sweeping majorities in both houses of Congress, enacted the Great Society. The Great Society was the New Deal on steroids. The Job Corps, Food Stamps, Higher Education Act, Elementary and Secondary Education Act, Medicaid, and the creation of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) marked the much deeper governmental reach into people’s lives.
All of that occurred at the national level and Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and New York City were equally affected. If you didn’t vote Democratic then your goodies will be taken away and you would have to fend for life on your own. Chicagoans have had to deal with an extra layer of corruption and control as well. On December 5th, 1970, the new Illinois Constitution was enacted and became effective on July 1st, 1971. Article I, Section 25 of the Illinois Constitution gives everyone the right to form a union including public sector unions as well. Article XXII, Section 5 ensured any public pension was untouchable. Government workers were always an army of loyal voters that could deliver the desired electoral results. Now they not only have jobs but an exceptionally generous pension system that dwarfs Social Security. The CTU has seen their members’ benefits explode while educational results implode.
Does this mean that Illinois and Chicago will be a one-party state forever? I don’t think so. First, they will need to foreswear any allegiance with Republicrats. That means promoting candidates like Ted Dabrowski instead of Darren Bailey. Secondly, their future emphasis should be spending money on voter education instead of on hopeless campaigns. Educate voters with ads that show the corruption of the CPS and the abysmal results. Campaign heavily in black neighborhoods. Universal school choice would be a winning issue. Free markets work best for everybody but the politicians who offer nothing but dependency. The playbook must change if the results are going to change.
