Mayor Brandon Johnson cites the “clearance rate” as evidence of success in fighting crime — obscuring the fact a large portion of cases never lead to legal consequences. The public knows better
Police clearance rates are perhaps the most misleading of all crime statistics. They do not reflect actual arrests, let alone prosecutions, and they often create the illusion of real progress. While Mayor Brandon Johnson and front-page headlines tout a record clearance rate of 71 percent for murders last year, the number of “actual arrests” for murder is “down” from 2024. Only one-fourth of last year’s murders have resulted in arrests. Arrest rates for non-lethal shootings and other serious crimes remain barely above 10 percent.
How clearance rates are inflated
The “clearance rate” for murders includes all homicide cases closed in a given year for murders committed in both the current and previous years, divided by the number of murders committed in one year. When the total number of murders decline, the clearance rate automatically appears to improve. The metric is further inflated by a sharp increase in cases classified as “cleared” without an arrest ever being made.
A case can be cleared through an arrest, but also by “exceptional means:” When a suspect dies, a victim declines to cooperate, or prosecutors refuse charges. Under Mayor Rahm Emanuel, these non-arrest clearances rose dramatically — from roughly 40 annually to well over 100 in recent years, now accounting for more than half of all closed homicide cases.
The situation worsened under former Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, whose office often declined to file charges. These cases were then closed by “exceptional means,” creating the false impression justice had been served. Foxx defended her policy as raising prosecutorial standards, but critics argued it made prosecution nearly impossible.
The reality behind numbers
Mayor Johnson credits higher clearance rates to greater collaboration between CPD and community violence intervention programs, as well as the promotion of 50 detectives in 2025. However, the real drivers of reduced violence in Chicago mirror national trends: The end of COVID restrictions, schools reopening, tougher policing, and more assertive prosecution.
In fact, Chicago’s crime decline began in earnest only after the 2024 election of Cook County State’s Attorney, Judge Eileen O’Neill Burke, who reversed Foxx’s policy of “catch and release.” Chicago’s homicide rate today is comparable to levels seen under Mayor Richard M. Daley — not a historic low, as Mayor Johnson claims. Even so, Chicago still leads the nation in total murders and shootings. If Chicago were its own state, it would rank second only to California in mass shootings. That cannot be our new “normal.”
Despite all the self-congratulation over clearance rates, the public is not feeling safer. A 2024 survey required by the CPD consent decree found only 33 percent of residents think Chicago Police are doing a good or very good job protecting the city — virtually unchanged since 2020 — and just 27 percent trust that reform will have lasting impact.
What Chicago must do
1. Rebuild the Chicago Police Department’s Detective Bureau:
CPD assigns only 8.4 percent of its officers to detective work, compared to 11.4 percent in New York and 15.4 percent in Los Angeles. Chicago’s arrest rate hovers around 25 percent, while New York’s exceeds 50 percent. Mayor Johnson promised 200 additional detectives but delivered just 50. The department should immediately augment investigative ranks by hiring retired detectives to assist with follow-up work and witness protection.
2. Restore “Beat” integrity:
Police staffing cuts have eroded basic coverage. Overtime spending has soared since the loss of 1,700 officers — funds that could restore at least 1,200 full-time positions. Because of staffing shortages, the percentage of “high priority” 911 calls left without an available patrol car has risen from 19 to 50 percent. That means slower response times, fewer witnesses, and fewer arrests.
3. Strengthen transit security:
Only 135 CPD officers are assigned full-time to the Chicago Transit Authority system, supplemented by part-time officers and unarmed private security covering 79 stations, 146 platforms, and 335 trains. By contrast, New York City deploys more than 3,500 NYPD officers on its system. CTA funds now spent on private security — and new state transit aid — should be redirected to hire 500 additional full-time officers for a dedicated, properly resourced Transit Police Unit.
4. Amend the SAFE-T Act:
Chicago’s legislative allies should push to amend the SAFE-T Act so that anyone who shoots at, assaults, or threatens a police officer, witness, or victim faces immediate bail revocation and mandatory pretrial detention. Until Springfield acts, local authorities can implement such measures through charging and sentencing decisions. There must be zero tolerance for witness intimidation or retaliation against victims.
5. Enact a Chicago Public Safety Ordinance:
Under the city’s Home Rule powers, Chicago can adopt an ordinance imposing up to 364 days in jail, fines, and probation for those who threaten or assault officers, first responders, witnesses, or victims — or who commit acts of domestic violence or hate crimes. Bail can be denied in these cases. The City Law Department can prosecute, pursue civil damages, and impose penalties. Chicago doesn’t have to act powerless.
The bottom line
The clearance rate is a smokescreen — used by mayors to claim progress while hiding the truth that most crimes go unpunished. Justice requires more than bookkeeping. It requires swift police response, robust investigation, and the protection of victims and witnesses.
If Chicago truly wants to move beyond the violence of the Daley era, it must replace illusion with accountability and restore public confidence by delivering real consequences for violent crime.
