That crime is down in Chicago is undeniable. The question is who is responsible and how it can be kept on a downward trajectory
Murders and overall violent crime declined significantly in Chicago in 2025. However, this improvement largely reflects delayed national trends and tougher policing and prosecution — not Mayor Brandon Johnson’s self-described “invest in people” approach, which he has credited for the decline. While the police played a key role in the turnaround, Johnson has largely ignored their contribution and given no credit to Cook County State’s Attorney Eileen Burke role in crime reduction. What are the real facts behind Chicago’s reduced crime — and what must be done to sustain it?
Chicago was an outlier during both the COVID-era crime surge and in its subsequent decline. When the pandemic hit in 2020, homicides across the country increased by about 30 percent, while Chicago’s rose by an astounding 60 percent. Other violent crime categories saw similar spikes. Until last year, Chicago’s decline in murders lagged far behind the national pace, as did reductions in other violent crimes. This was the result of a perfect storm of bad policies, ideological experiments, and political timidity.
Reducing police strength
Between 2019 and 2025, CPD lost more than 1,700 sworn officers through attrition and budget cuts. Beat coverage became dangerously thin, and response times worsened. “High-priority” 911 calls with no available officers rose from 19 percent in 2019 to 62 percent in 2022 — a stunning collapse in capacity that it’s only slowly recovering from. With limited staffing and depleted detective ranks, arrest rates fell to a historic low of six percent.
The shortage in police personnel extended to Chicago’s public transit system. Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) police staffing averaged just 135 full-time CPD officers — roughly equivalent to the mayor’s personal security detail — to protect 79 stations, 146 platforms, 335 trains, and 129 bus routes. Supplemented by off-duty officers and a patchwork of private guards — many unarmed and untrained with no power of arrest — violent crime on public transit soared even as ridership plummeted.
Pretrial release
Cook County’s expansive pretrial release practices, combined with former State’s Attorney Kim Foxx’s reluctance to prosecute and CPD’s abysmal arrest rate, meant that on any given day, well over 90 percent of those committing major crimes in Chicago were walking the streets. This, coupled with the absence of a substantive witness and victim protection program, undermined the police’s ability to secure cooperation needed to make arrests and secure convictions.
CWB Chicago reported that nearly 20 percent of those committing major crimes were out on parole or awaiting trial for other crimes. Between 2020 and 2024, CWB reported that 408 individuals arrested for murder or attempted murder were on pretrial release at the time of the alleged offense. This number that is likely underestimated, given an actual arrest rate for murder below 20 percent and for non-lethal shootings is around five percent.
Chicago public school closures
The Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) was also a major contributor to the crime epidemic. Its prolonged school closures and work stoppages during COVID fueled the rise in youth violence and devastated the city’s most vulnerable populations. Under intense union pressure Chicago kept schools closed for 78 consecutive weeks over two years — the longest among major U.S. cities. Over those two years over 900 school age youth 17 years and younger were shot and more than 100 were killed.
The human cost was staggering: Youth homicides and shootings hit record levels as unsupervised students became easy prey for gangs — or formed their own street crews. There was also a historic increase in violent crimes including murder and non lethal shootings by school age youth. During the COVID shutdown, approximately 38,000 students left the city’s public school system, thousands joining street gangs or loosely organized crews.
Chicago finally catches up to the nation in crime reduction
After lagging far behind national crime reduction trends, Chicago saw a 29 percent drop in murders and a 23 percent reduction in overall violent crime in 2025 — both far greater than the national average. Still, the city’s overall crime rate remains much higher than its peers. Mayor Johnson insists his “invest in people” agenda deserves credit, citing expanded youth jobs, “Treatment Not Trauma,” and social service programs.
In reality, many of these initiatives are recycled versions of older programs or exaggerated budget claims. Consider the following:
- Mayor Johnson has reopened only three of the 12 community mental health clinics closed under former Mayor Rahm Emanuel, despite making them a key talking point.
- Johnson’s “10,000 affordable housing units” boast masks the truth: Only a few hundred units are underway, each subsidized ranged between $750,000 and $1 million for small apartments awarded to politically connected developers.
- The Mayor’s heavily touted summer jobs expansion merely restored pre-COVID employment levels as there were 31,199 youth hired in 2025 compared to 31,552 in 2019. This was to be expected after the ending of the COVID mitigations.
- The “violence interrupters” initiative largely continues the program that has long been in existence and was expanded by former Mayor Lori Lightfoot. The state as well as the business community and philanthropists have provided much of the funding.
- The Mayor’s Office of Reentry Services created by Mayor Lightfoot remains sparsely staffed, with limited resources. It remains largely an office in name only despite the fact that between 20,000 and 30,000 incarcerated are released each year, over half returning to Chicago.
Meanwhile, city and school district spending on services for recent migrants now exceeds an estimated $600 million and approaches $1 billion when state support is counted — funds that could otherwise support neighborhoods still struggling with poverty and violence.
Who then deserves credit for the reduction in crime?
Two key developments — not City Hall policy or mayoral rhetoric — explain the improved crime picture.
First, the appointment of Superintendent Larry Snelling, a 30-year CPD veteran, deserves significant recognition. Snelling has emphasized accountability, stronger leadership, and smarter deployment. By setting politics aside and cooperating with federal law enforcement agencies, often in apparent defiance of the mayor’s political stance, Snelling has improved operations, police effectiveness, and morale.
Second, the election of State’s Attorney Eileen Burke reversed Kim Foxx’s legacy. Burke is prosecuting more serious cases, seeking detention for violent offenders, and demanding higher judicial accountability. The county jail population has returned to pre-COVID levels, and admissions — especially for gun and domestic violence offenders — have risen sharply, signaling a break from Foxx’s and Toni Preckwinkle’s “revolving-door” justice system.
What Must Be Done to further reduce crime
Despite progress, Chicago remains one of the nation’s most violent major cities. In 2025, it again led the U.S. with 433 murders, 1,592 shootings, 234 youth shootings including 47 murders, and 69 mass shootings. While murders and shootings have declined, overall violent crime remains higher than pre-COVID levels and likely underreported due to long response times and low arrest rates, both of which discourage victims and witnesses from cooperating.
To continue progress, the city must act with urgency. What must be done?
- Restore CPD strength and proactive policing: Rebuild staffing to pre-COVID levels, ensure full police beat coverage, and replace ineffective private security on the CTA with full-time CPD officers.
- Reform pretrial and sentencing practices: Judges should deny bail to habitual violent offenders and impose mandatory penalties for attacks on witnesses and first responders. Chicago can use its own home rule powers to strengthen detention standards and impose tougher sentences.
- Expand intergovernmental cooperation: Close partnership with Federal law enforcement agencies — not symbolic National Guard deployments— will help reduce crime long term. Violent offenders can be arrested, prosecuted and sentenced under much tougher federal laws.
- Embrace crime-fighting technology: Restoration of ShotSpotter can improve response times and save lives as it has already proven. Smart technology can improve proactive policing while reducing confrontations and improving officer safety.
- Fund proven grassroots interventions: Community anti-violence partners are critically important but so is vetting them. Funds should be awarded to fully vetted community organizations with measurable results — not politically connected nonprofits.
- Keep schools open as community hubs: Extend operations into evenings and weekends for tutoring, job training, and recreation — especially in high-crime areas — and expand youth employment and work-study options can keep students in safe places and constructively engaged.
- Provide for high school student Work-Study: High school students should be provided “Work-Study” opportunities. Like College Dual Enrollment, Work study would be offered for credit and would introduce students to the work world and role models and mentors while providing year-round paid internships.
- Expand alternative education and occupational training: Build out adult education and occupational trading programs for dropouts, court-referred youth, unemployed adults, and those returning from incarceration. Strengthen the Office of Reentry to coordinate these efforts.
These measures are financially feasible. Returning to 2019 overtime spending could fund over 1,000 new CPD personnel. Redirecting CTA private security funds and new state public transit safety funding could finance 500 full-time transit officers. High school electives could be restructured as paid work-study internships. Federal WIOA and WTO workforce development funding could underwrite reentry and occupational training programs.
Chicago’s fight against violent crime is far from over. Continued progress depends on substance, not symbolism — restoring police strength, keeping violent offenders off the streets, supporting legitimate community organizations, and connecting residents to education, jobs, and reentry opportunities. In the end, it’s a matter of priorities — and the will to act on them.
