It’s detainment, not affordable housing
Mayor Brandon Johnson is overseeing a city in crisis. Though the mayor continues to assert his “progressive” policies are the corrective measures to restore Chicago’s fiscal dislocation, failing schools, and stubborn crime, nothing could be further from the truth. Johnson’s progressive agenda is largely fictional. Other than appointing the highly competent Police Superintendent Larry Snelling, Johnson has done little meaningful to address violent crime. Contrary to the mayor’s claims, the ground Chicago has gained in the fight against crime is owed to the election of Eileen O’Neill Burke, who Johnson opposed in the Democratic primary.
Across the nation, violent crime has declined since the COVID-19 pandemic receded. The national drop in violent crime coincides with the end of pandemic restrictions, the full reopening of schools, and renewed attention to high-crime neighborhoods — not just through expanded social services or violence interrupters, but through a stronger and more visible police presence. However, until 2025, Chicago lagged far behind that national decline; last year, the city’s reduction in murders and shootings was roughly half the national rate and Chicago ranked near the bottom among major U.S. cities with populations above 250,000.
Chicago’s violent crime surge during the pandemic far exceeded national averages. Until recently, the decline in violent crime in Chicago was modest in comparison to large metropolitan areas nationwide. The convergence of several policy failures created the perfect storm. Since 2019, the decline in police personnel — some 1,700 police officers — strained 911 response times and drove down arrest rates. From 2019 to 2023 the number of “High Priority 911” calls for which there were no cars available grew from 19 percent to over 50 percent. Meanwhile, arrest rates for major crimes fell to six percent, a historic low.
With the abysmal arrest rates and Cook County’s disastrous pre-trial release program in action, more than 90 percent of violent offenders have been walking free each day in Chicago’s streets. According to CWB Chicago, one in five individuals arrested and charged with a felony were already out on pretrial release for another offense. Between 2020 and 2024, 408 individuals arrested for murder or attempted murder were out on pretrial release awaiting trial for other felonies. In consideration of the city’s historically low arrest rate, the true figure is likely four to five times higher.
A primary but often overlooked driver of Chicago’s surge in violence was the prolonged closure of city schools. Pressured by the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU), which threatened illegal strikes on multiple occasions, city leaders kept schools closed for 78 consecutive weeks — nearly a full year longer than most U.S. school systems, which had at least partially reopened by then. These closures had devastating consequences: Homicides and shootings among youth aged 17 and younger rose by 50 percent, exacerbating an already historic wave of youth violence.
Though evidence that crime’s decline is tethered to COVID fading, Mayor Johnson continues to insist the sharp decline in shootings and murders seen in 2025 reflects the success of his “investments in people.” The truth, however, is found elsewhere. With the exception of appointing Superintendent Larry Snelling after departure of the incompetent David Brown, there have been no major reforms within the Chicago Police Department or to city criminal justice policy since before the pandemic.
The mayor’s proclaimed “investments” have produced few tangible results. Reopening three of the twelve mental health clinics closed under Mayor Rahm Emanuel hardly qualifies as transformative. Despite mechanically boasting about the construction of 10,000 affordable housing units, almost none have materialized. The modest expansion of temporary summer youth jobs was a mere restoration to pre-COVID levels. As for his community violence intervention program, the alternative anti-crime strategy is largely a continuation of Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s initiatives, funded primarily by the state and private partners — not by City Hall.
So what explains Chicago’s long-awaited turnaround? The difference-maker is new Cook County State’s Attorney Judge Eileen O’Neill Burke. Now 11 months in office, Burke has reversed many of the lenient prosecution policies of her predecessor, Kim Foxx. She applies the law as written, files appropriate charges, and prioritizes detaining those accused of serious crimes. Since her election, detainments for gun offenses have risen sharply.
Burke ended Foxx’s “catch and release” approach and maintained her pledge to seek no bail for those accused of possessing machine guns or committing violent felonies. She has strengthened prosecutions while elevating domestic violence and crimes against children as top priorities. Under her leadership, the newly created Special Victims Bureau focuses on domestic violence, sexual assault, child abuse, and hate crimes. Monthly admissions to Cook County Jail for individuals ordered detained — mostly for gun-related crimes — have increased by 47 percent, and those for domestic battery have surged 81 percent.
It is worth noting that Mayor Johnson opposed Burke in the Democratic primary, instead backing Clayton Harris III — Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle’s handpicked successor to Foxx. Harris openly promised to continue Foxx’s policies. Not coincidentally, lawyers who specialize in suing police officers represented the largest donor bloc to his campaign. Chicago’s 2025 improvements in murder and shooting rates are therefore clearly linked to Burke’s leadership, not Johnson’s policies.
Every mayor seeks acclaim for reductions in crime. Mayor Johnson should publicly recognize Burke’s impact on the improving conditions on the street. Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle can acknowledge the progress Burke has made by cooperating with the State Attorney Office’s budgetary needs. Burke is not a threat to the SAFE-T Act or to reasonable pre-trial release standards. Rather, Burke is a threat to violent and habitual offenders — to those who commit gun crimes and domestic abuse.
If you want to understand why crime went down so dramatically after the national surge in the 1970s through the 1990s, look to the same principle at work today: Public confidence in the rule of law. Prosecutors and police who enforced clear consequences for serious crimes restored that confidence. Superintendent Snelling and State’s Attorney Burke understand this fundamental truth. Crime falls when justice is predictable. Burke’s success comes from her focus on protecting victims and holding offenders accountable.
