Skipping debates, failure to fundraise, the list goes on and on
Illinois Republicans have a remarkable talent for self-destruction, but they just might outdo themselves in the March 17th primary election. Darren Bailey, who squandered a fortune only to be obliterated by Governor J.B. Pritzker in 2022, still has name recognition which could be sufficient enough for him to win the primary.
However, with virtually no financial support this time, and unwilling to appear for GOP debates, Bailey will carry the Republican banner straight to the garbage heap in November if he prevails in the GOP primary.
A Republican candidate trying to take on a billionaire incumbent such as Pritzker with a failed fundraising operation is walking straight into a gunfight with a pocketknife. Conservatives, of all people, should understand not to throw good money at an inferior candidate.
Only four years ago, Bailey was blown out by Governor J.B. Pritzker — losing by 35 points in Cook County and the suburbs and by 12 points overall — in a race which was never close. In a country where competitive gubernatorial races are decided by a few thousand votes, Bailey lost by nearly 500,000. That’s more than being handed a defeat. It's a decisive repudiation.
In the 2022 general election, Bailey enjoyed fundraising advantages and amassed a campaign coffer many political observers considered sufficient to overcome Pritzker. In sum, nearly $60 million was spent by his campaign or by PACs or on his behalf, mostly on advertising, giving him the name recognition he still enjoys. As Bailey pulled in tens of millions, Pritzker spent almost $26 million to help Bailey earn the GOP nomination because he considered Bailey an easier candidate to overcome in the general election.
The lesson learned in 2022 was Republican money was wasted so donors searched for a new candidate. Snakebit by their experience with Bailey in 2022, the rare, reliable, big Republican donors in Illinois are now backing Ted Dabrowski for governor, including mega-donor Dick Uihlein. Bailey’s fundraising to date this time around has shrunk to $300,000.
In contrast, Ted Dabrowski has pulled in about six times what Bailey has raised. More importantly, operatives close to Dabrowski maintain that major, national funding sources have expressed a willingness to pour money into his campaign if he can overcome his three primary challengers. That’s credible because the GOP’s top donors prefer this outcome before committing serious money to the race. Moreover, Dabrowski, armed with broad executive experience in international finance and a Wharton MBA, is the sort of candidate who will appeal to the GOP’s national donor class.
Bailey’s problem four years ago was that he was pummeled by Chicago-area voters. To win statewide, however, relying on downstate votes simply isn’t enough to cross the finish line. A respectable performance in Democratic or swing areas around Chicago is essential to claim the governor’s mansion.
Naturally, this brings us to Bailey refusing to appear for debates. Bailey skipped three recent debates, one in Manteno and two others hosted by FOX Chicago and AM-560. Bailey will also skip Monday’s debate in Wheeling Township.
Bailey’s campaign claims the debates serve no purpose because he is outperforming his opponents. This is an unconvincing argument. In the several instances in which the two have appeared in public, Dabrowski has outclassed Bailey on every issue confronting Illinois, and Bailey clearly remains uncomfortable with audiences beyond his downstate base.
Refusing to debate is not the kind of leadership the GOP needs at the top of its ticket. If Darren Bailey cannot stand on a stage to defend his record, his policy positions, and his vision for Illinois with fellow Republicans, what exactly is his plan for debating J.B. Pritzker during the campaign? How can Bailey claim to be the leader of his state party?
Pritzker’s campaign has already seized on Bailey’s absence from the GOP debates, blasting Bailey for “skipping the debate” and “avoiding scrutiny.”
Bailey’s failure to raise campaign funds and skipping out on debates are not merely a logistical problem or campaign strategy. Rather, they are indictments of the candidate himself. A serious contender for governor of the fifth-largest state in the nation should be able to demonstrate, at minimum, that he can organize a compelling fundraising apparatus and that he is anxious to answer questions in a public forum. Bailey’s problems are features of who he is as a politician.
If Republican primary voters hand Bailey the nomination again, they will not simply be making a mistake. They will be making the same mistake — with full knowledge of the consequences — and handing J.B. Pritzker another four years before the ballots are even printed.
You probably know the definition of insanity — doing the same thing and expecting different results. Illinois Republicans may test that proposition once more.
